Multiplying Hotbeds of Tension

Dr Christian Wirth reviews how regional powers compete over resources and sovereignty in the South China Sea. He exposes the limits of the law of the sea (UNCLOS) as well as of ASEAN, under the impression of growing nationalist sentiments, to provide means for the relaxation of the stiffening geopolitical context.

Chinese territorial and maritime claims over large swaths of the South China Sea are based not only on economic and security considerations, but also on national identity making and the renewal of China’s past grandeur. For Vis. Prof. Nicola Casarini, this issue is considered by Chinese leaders and the public opinion alike as “domestic” and not something over which other claimant states – and even less so the international community – should have a say.

Exploring the consequences of the US strategic redeployment towards the Asia Pacific, Prof. David Sylvan considers whether the pivot may lead to a new cold war in the region. Arguing that the pivot only marginally alters prior policies and military capability of the United States in the South China Sea, Prof. Sylvan concludes that US-China relations are likely to continue on a peaceful basis given the two powers’ ongoing cooperation on a series of global issues such as climate change and anti-terror policies.

Adopting the perspective of the longue durée, Prof. Jussi Hanhimäki explores the history of US-China relations in the region. Arguing that the solid cooperation and common base of interests established since the historic visit of Nixon (1972) should suffice to prevent a major conflict in the South China Sea, Prof. Hanhimaki still sees two potential risks that could lead to conflict escalation: the rather unlikely hypothesis that the United States will be drawn into conflict by one of its local allies and the more serious threat posed by a change of domestic politics that could drag China or the United States into isolationism.

Christine Pichel Medina, PhD graduate, explores the consequences of the recent ruling of the Arbitral Tribunal. Even though China refuses to recognise the ruling which is largely in its disfavour, some of its findings may prove seminal for the future: (a) any pre-existing historical rights as formulated by China in its nine-dash line are invalid as superseded by the regime established by UNCLOS; (b) China may not, through any activity, enhance the status of a feature in the South China Sea, e.g. from rock to island.

Umut Yüksel, PhD candidate, investigates whether the current arms race in the region risks escalating into a full-fledged war or whether, on the contrary, the region is witnessing a more ordinary phenomenon of military modernisation by fast-growing countries. In particular, Yüksel gives a closer look at the Chinese build-up of military bases on land reclaimed from coral reefs and recent acquisition of a nuclear submarine fleet. He concludes that it is the US military engagement to the region and ongoing commitment to its regional allies that will ultimately prove determinant for the sequel of the military build-up in the South China Sea.

Going back to the initial question of whether war is on the horizon in the South China Sea, Dr Dominic Eggel argues in this outlook that much will depend on the attitudes and strategies adopted by the new US administration. As tensions and scuffles in the region are bound to continue, functioning communication (back-)channels, conflict management measures, and a sufficient degree of mutual understanding between the United States and China are more important than ever to prevent conflicts from escalating.