Global Challenges
Issue no. 1 | February 2017
South China Sea: War on the Horizon?
South China Sea | Figure for Article 6

Arms Race in the South China Sea: What Threshold?

Submarine Race in the South China Sea

The Chinese submarine fleet is one of the fastest growing and modernising forces in the world with 70 boats in 2016, with plans to add 20 more within the next 10 years. It consists of 5 nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs), 4 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), and more than 50 diesel-electric attack submarines. According to the US Office of Naval Intelligence, 4 Type 094 Jin-class SSBNs are currently operating. The Type 094 is capable of carrying nuclear warheads and providing China with a sea-based nuclear strike capability. According to experts, the next generation (Type 096) will be equipped with powerful JL-3 intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US territory by being launched from the South China Sea. Moreover, China is constructing a great underwater wall – using drones and robots – whose main mission would be to detect the presence of potential adversaries’ submarines.

The Philippines have expressed interest in acquiring submarines. In addition to its two submarines, Indonesia has recently acquired 3 submarines from South Korea, 2 of which are expected to be in service by 2017 and the other by 2019. Vietnam bought 6 submarines from Russia under a 2009 deal, 5 of which have been delivered. Singapore ordered 2 submarines from a German company in 2013, to be delivered in 2020. Malaysia has 2 submarines, ordered in 2002 and in service as of 2009.