European Elections 2024: The Cordon Sanitaire and the Rightward Shift

Without a doubt, the June 2024 European elections marked a significant shift, with about a quarter of the newly elected members now coming from parties further to the right than the Christian Democrats. This is the most right-leaning Parliament in EU history, raising crucial questions: will the “cordon sanitaire” – an informal arrangement that blocks these parties from legislative influence – hold, or will centre-right parties begin to openly collaborate with the far right for greater political power?

With around 350 million eligible voters across 27 EU Member States, this was one of the largest global democratic elections in 2024. The European Parliament is the only directly elected EU body, co-legislating laws and shaping the annual budget with the Council. This gives it significant influence over EU political priorities. Far-right politicians have long recognised the Parliament’s potential as a platform, a trend that began with Jean-Marie Le Pen and the National Front in 1984.

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In the 2024 elections, the far right made major gains in France, Germany, and Italy. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally won 31.37% of the vote in France, prompting President Macron to call for snap elections. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) came in second with 15.9%, gaining seats. Giorgia Meloni’s party in Italy secured 28.75% of the vote. Similar gains occurred in Austria, Hungary, and Spain, signalling a wider trend across Europe.

The Christian Democrats, represented by the European People’s Party (EPP), solidified their position as the strongest political group, with a comfortable lead over the Socialists. Meanwhile, the Liberals suffered major losses in France, Germany, and Spain. The Greens faced setbacks in Germany. As a result, no majority in Parliament can be formed without the Christian Democrats, giving them a decisive role in shaping the direction of this legislature – whether by cooperating with the far right or building alliances with progressive parties to reinforce the cordon sanitaire.

The cordon sanitaire has primarily targeted the Patriots for Europe (PfE), a new far-right parliamentary group including Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, Italy’s League, Spain’s Vox, and other like-minded parties. This bloc is now the third-largest in the European Parliament, potentially giving it significant bargaining power.

Germany’s AfD initially sought to join the Patriots for Europe, but after a controversial statement from AfD’s Maximilian Krah about the Nazi SS, the French refused. As a result, the AfD formed its own group, Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN), alongside parties such as Poland’s Confederation, Bulgaria’s Revival, and France’s Reconquête!.

A controversy surrounds the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, led by Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, a party known for its fascist roots. The cordon sanitaire has only been partially applied to this group. ECR also includes Poland’s former ruling party, Law and Justice, which greatly undermined Poland’s rule of law system, alongside the Finns Party and the Czech Republic’s Civic Democratic Party. Collectively, these three far-right groups, positioned to the right of the EPP, now make up a quarter of the European Parliament – a deeply concerning number.

During the campaigning period, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she would exclude collaborating with the far right. However, in June 2024 she delayed a critical rule of law report, which was seen as an effort to secure Meloni’s support for her second-term bid. This signals potential political calculations taking precedence over core democratic values. Will the growing presence of far-right politicians in Parliament lead to their further normalisation at the EU level? And will the EPP openly collaborate with these factions to secure majorities in a Parliament characterised by shifting alliances?

During the July 2024 constitutive session, the cordon sanitaire held. The Patriots for Europe were excluded from key positions despite being the third-largest group. However, the cordon sanitaire did not apply to Meloni’s ECR, which secured two Vice-President positions along with several Chair and Vice-Chair roles. This gives the ECR considerable leverage in shaping agendas and negotiations within committees and the wider Parliament.

Is it democratically justifiable to exclude the Patriots for Europe – the third-largest and democratically elected group – from positions of power?  Signs of the cordon sanitaire’s weakening also appeared in September 2024, when the EPP, along with Orbán’s and Le Pen’s Patriots for Europe, and Meloni’s ECR tabled a joint resolution on Venezuela. Though the EPP claimed the other groups co-signed later, it is clear that a coalition was formed to ensure the adoption of the resolution in plenary, indicating that cooperation with the far right is no longer taboo.

Is it democratically justifiable to exclude the Patriots for Europe – the third-largest and democratically elected group – from positions of power? This dilemma refers back to a long-standing debate among legal and political scholars: when does militant democracy itself become undemocratic? In an interview with Euronews on 16 July 2024, Daniel Freund, a prominent Green Member of the European Parliament, justified the cordon sanitaire as follows: “If your political goal is to destroy this parliament, you should not be put in charge of managing this parliament.” This underscores the challenge of protecting parliamentary integrity against democratically elected parties seeking to dismantle a democratic institution from within.